Public Debt Dynamics and Forecasting with the DDTx Tool

Understanding how public debt evolves is critical for maintaining macroeconomic stability and designing sustainable fiscal policies. This course provides a clear, step-by-step guide to projecting government debt over time based on key macroeconomic and financial variables. You will learn how to structure data, run projections, and interpret the results to assess fiscal health. By completing this text-only program, you will transition from understanding basic fiscal concepts to confidently evaluating debt paths under various economic scenarios. You will gain a practical framework for analyzing how interest rates, inflation, GDP growth, and primary balances interact to shape a nation's financial future. What you'll learn: - Understand the core principles of public debt accumulation and fiscal sustainability. - Configure and use the Debt Dynamics Tool (DDTx) framework for forecasting. - Analyze the impact of GDP growth, inflation, and interest rates on public debt pathways. - Project future debt-to-GDP ratios under baseline and alternative economic scenarios. - Identify fiscal risks and design adjustment strategies to address debt vulnerability. This course begins with foundational definitions of public debt, fiscal deficits, and macroeconomic indicators before moving into structured forecasting techniques and scenario analysis. You will study realistic country cases and work through written exercises designed to build your analytical confidence. This course is designed for policy analysts, public sector employees, economics students, and finance professionals who want to understand debt sustainability analysis. No prior experience with debt modeling is required, though a basic understanding of introductory macroeconomics is helpful. Start learning today to master the essentials of public debt forecasting.